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To Hell with Satchel Paige


Don’t you hate columnists who make New Year’s predictions and never go back and tell you how they did? Me too. Last year, I made a few of ‘em.
Here’s the rehash.
In December, 2003, I said: Arnold will prove to be a more effective governor than people currently realize. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be liked in Sacramento, so the headlines will continue to moan and bewail his tactics as he runs rough-shod over anyone who gets in his way.
In December, 2004, I say: Not bad.

In December, 2003, I said:Mayor-elect Gavin Newsom workforce housing bond will pass.
In December, 2004, I say: Goose Egg! Not even close! And you know what, none of this fall’s ballot initiative didn’t pass either.
In December 2003, I said:Rev. Al Sharpton is going to do better in the primaries than people think. Big Media political reporters are currently distracted by Howard Dean’s fight with Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe so they’re ignoring Sharpton who is poised to start collecting hunks of votes.
In December, 2004, I say: Eh? What was I thinking? This makes no sense and it doesn’t matter, anyway. Next!
In December,2003, I said:“OUR THING”: The blogger bubble will burst sometime around the last of the Democratic primaries because everyone is heartily sick of ‘bloggers and their self-congratulation.
In December, 2004, I say: Hmmm. Not entirely right. Hostility toward bloggers reached an all-time high in the Spring after Dean’s campaign fell apart. But now it seems, peace is being made as, well, it’s clear we ain’t going away.
In December, 2003, I said: Along those same lines: There will be another newspaper scandal a la Jayson Blair that rocks the credibility of people in the business. So ready for another series of woe-is-us essays and deep naval gazing on the part of people who think of themselves as upholding the public good and safeguarding democracy.
In December, 2004, I say: Dan Rather.
A year ago — before gay marriage, which NO ONE predicted — this site was more concentrated on local events, So I made a series of predictions about Silicon Valley.
2003: The guys over at Venture Blog say social networking software is silly, and no, it’s not the next big thing. They’re right.
Well, it seemed like a good prediction at the time. A quarter right. The big thing these days is RSS.
2003: Tony Perkins ain’t never gonna finish his Google book. But John Battelle will.
Hey, I can use this one for 2005! It’s still true.
2003: Google’ll go public. The old-fashioned way. No dutch auction. There’ll be trouble, though.
Oh, a third right and it was obvious. They split the baby just before the public offering because Wall Street didn’t like the auction.
2003: This could be a good year for hardware in Silicon Valley.
Can you say iPod?
2003: Martha Stewart gets some kind of conviction. And Frank Quattrone, well, if Frank is tried on the same charges – the indictment could be amended – I say he walks again.
Well, forty-sixty. Martha’s in jail and Frank’s waiting for his appeal to go through.

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